Harga emas kekal tinggi

SUMBER Berita Harian Online

2011/04/21

Logam pelaburan paling selamat lepasi paras AS$1,500 seauns 

HARGA emas buat pertama kali dalam sejarah melepasi paras AS$1,500 (RM4,524) seauns semalam, apabila kelemahan nilai dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS) ditambah pula dengan kebimbangan terhadap kadar inflasi yang tinggi serta krisis hutang yang membelenggu negara Eropah menyebabkan pelabur beralih membeli logam yang dianggap pelindung nilai paling selamat itu.

Harga logam itu mencecah AS$1,502.32 seauns pada satu ketika dalam sesi dagangan di Pasaran Jongkong London semalam sebelum ditutup pada AS$1,499.32 seauns.

Harga logam perak turut mencatatkan harga tertingginya dalam tempoh 31 tahun semalam iaitu AS$44.48 seauns. 

“Harga emas kekal tinggi, apabila tekanan inflasi jangka pendek dan ketidaktentuan ekonomi telah mencetuskan peralihan kepada pelaburan lebih selamat,” kata Penganalisis Komoditi Kumpulan Kewangan Rusia, VTB Capital, Andrey Kryuchenkov. 

Emas dilihat sebagai pelindung nilai paling selamat dalam situasi ekonomi yang tidak menentu. 

Harga emas mula melonjak untuk bergerak ke paras AS$1,500 pada Isnin lalu selepas agensi penarafan antarabangsa, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) menyemak semula tinjauan penarafan hutang kedaulatan AS kepada negatif daripada stabil. 
Penarafan S&P itu mencabar penarafan ‘AAA’ Washington, apabila ia memberi amaran bahawa ahli politik AS dilihat tidak mampu menyetujui pelan untuk mengurangkan defisit bajet yang besar, iaitu kira-kira 10 peratus daripada Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) negara itu. 

Penurunan penarafan itu juga mengheret turun harga saham dunia pada Isnin, di tengah-tengah meningkatnya kebimbangan terhadap inflasi dengan China, India dan zon euro bergelut untuk membendung kenaikan harga. 

Minggu lalu, firma perunding logam, GFMS mengunjurkan harga emas akan melonjak melepasi paras AS$1,600 tahun ini, dipacu terutama oleh kebimbangan ke atas inflasi yang tinggi. 

Kryuchenkov berkata: “Emas melonjak selepas S&P menurunkan penarafan tinjauan hutang kedaulatan AS kepada negatif dan ia dibuat ketika adanya kebimbangan mengenai masalah ekonomi susulan kemunculan semula masalah hutang di zon euro.” 

Harga emas telah meningkat enam peratus sejak awal tahun ini, memecah beberapa siri rekod tertingginya sepanjang tempoh itu. 

Harganya melepasi paras AS$1,000 buat kali pertama pada Mac 2008. 

“Emas akan terus menjadi tumpuan pelabur selagi kebimbangan terhadap inflasi dan hutang berterusan,” kata Penganalisis kumpulan perdagangan Spread Co, Ian O’Sullivan. – AFP 

Credit Rating USA at Risk

MONDAY, 18 APRIL 2011 21:48

BBC

Sumber: Khilafah.com

The US has been warned that the credit rating on its government debt could be cut by Standard & Poor's. S&P is concerned that Democrats and Republicans will not be able to agree a plan to reduce the growing US deficit. 

It has downgraded its outlook from stable to negative, increasing the likelihood that the rating could be cut within the next two years.  

The US Treasury responded that S&P had underestimated its ability to tackle the national debt. "Because the US has, relative to its 'AAA' [top-rated] peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable," the agency said in a statement. 

The surprise move sent US and European shares lower. The S&P 500 fell the most in a month, and the US dollar dropped against the euro and Swiss franc. Oil was also sharply lower.  In Europe, the main UK, German and French indexes all fell by at least 2%.  

The US federal deficit currently stands at $1.4tn (£858bn) and is expected to reach $1.5tn in the current fiscal year. 

Budget battle 

President Barack Obama suggested that the world could plunge into a new recession if the ceiling on money the US can borrow is not raised in the next few weeks, before the current debt limit of $14.3tn is reached.Mr Obama and the Republicans are locked in a battle over the extent of spending cuts. 

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives has passed a 2012 budget plan that aims to cut $6.2tn in spending by the government over the next decade.  But the bill is not expected to make it through the Democrat-led Senate. The current fight is over spending from 1 October onwards. Last week, Congress passed a budget bill that would cut $38.5bn in government spending over the rest of the current fiscal year, to 30 September. Last week, Mr Obama laid out his plan to reduce the budget deficit by $4tn over 12 years. 

'Political judgment' 

Austan Goolsbee, the chief economist of the president's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, dismissed the change in outlook while making the rounds on US cable networks. 

"What the S&P is doing is making a political judgment and it is one that we don't agree with," he told CNBC.The S&P outlook cut comes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last week that the size of the US deficit created instability in the financial markets. In a statement, S&P was positive about the general state of the US economy, but said: "We believe there is a material risk that US policymakers might not reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013. "If an agreement is not reached and meaningful implementation is not begun by then, this would in our view render the US fiscal profile meaningfully weaker than that of peer 'AAA' sovereigns." 

 'Wake-up call' 

The US has the top AAA credit rating on its long-term bonds.

 Since the US is the world's largest economy, and its debt is considered the backbone of the world's financial system, any concern over the US ability to pay its debt creates huge ripples in the world economy. 

"It's a wake-up call that we need to do something," said Axel Merk, a currency fund manager in California. S&P is "absolutely correct that this is something serious that needs to be addressed." But the US Treasury responded strongly to the change in outlook.  "We believe S&P's negative outlook underestimates the ability of America's leaders to come together to address the difficult fiscal challenges facing the nation," it said.

Dollar faces collapse

MONDAY, 18 APRIL 2011 20:26

Swissinfo.ch

Sember: Khilafah.com

The United States greenback has become the biggest speculative bubble in history and will soon go the way of the dinosaurs, warns Swiss financial journalist Myret Zaki.

In her latest book, Zaki says that the euro’s future is much brighter and that attacks against the currency are just a smokescreen aimed at hiding the collapse of the American economy. “The collapse of the American dollar… is inevitable. The world’s biggest economy is nothing but an illusion. To produce $14,000 billion of nation income, the United States has created over $50,000 billion of debt that costs it $4,000 billion in interest payments each year.”

There can be little doubt about Myret Zaki’s opinion of the American dollar and economy, which she considers technically bankrupt, an opinion she backs up in her new book, La fin du dollar (The end of the dollar).

Over the past few years, she has become one of Switzerland’s best known business journalists, with a book about the UBS debacle in the US and another about tax evasion.

You say in your book that the end of the dollar will be the major event of the 21st century. Aren’t you painting the situation more catastrophic than it really is?Myret Zaki: I realise that predicting such a huge event when there are no tangible warning signs of a violent crisis may seem all doom and gloom. But I reached those conclusions based on extremely rational and factual criteria.

More and more American authors believe that their country’s monetary policy will lead to such a situation. It is simply impossible that it will happen any other way.

It’s not the first time the end of the dollar has been foreseen. What makes the situation different in 2011?M.Z.: It’s true that it has been announced since the 1970s. But never have so many different factors come together, letting us fear the worst. American debt has reached a record level, the dollar is at a historic low against the Swiss franc and most new American bond issues are being bought by the US Federal Reserve. Other central banks have also been criticising the US, creating a hostile front against American monetary policy.

Besides the end of the dollar, you are also announcing the end of the US as an economic superpower. Isn’t America simply too big to fail?M.Z.: Everybody has an interest in the US economy staying afloat, so everyone is in denial for the time being. But it won’t last forever. No one will be able to save the Americans. They will have to carry the burden of their bankruptcy alone.

They can expect a very long period of austerity, which has already begun. Forty-five million Americans have already lost their homes, 20 per cent of the population is out of the economic system and is not spending, while a third of states are bankrupt. No-one is investing their money in the country any more. Everything is built on debt. Myret Zaki says the euro zone has been under a concerted attack (Keystone)

You claim that the weakening of the euro zone is nothing less than a question of national security for the United States. Isn’t that a kind of anti-American paranoia?M.Z.: We all like America and we prefer to see the world through pink-tinted lenses. But since the end of the Cold War and the creation of the euro in 1999, an economic war has been going on. A competitive offer of sovereign debt based on a strong currency risks lowering demand for American debt.

The United States cannot afford to stop accumulating debt, because that debt has helped them finance wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and consolidate their leading role in the world. It is a vital need for them.

In 2008, the euro was a currency that was taken very seriously by oil-producing nations, sovereign funds and central banks. It was about to overtake the dollar, something the US wanted to prevent at all costs. The world needs a safe place to offload its excess assets and everything is done to make sure Europe isn’t that place. It was precisely at that moment that speculators began attacking the sovereign debt of some European nations.
What will happen if the dollar collapses as predicted?M.Z.: Europe is the planet’s biggest economic power and it has a strong reference currency. Unlike the United States, it is also expanding. In Asia, the Chinese yuan will become the reference and China is Europe’s biggest ally.

It has an interest in supporting a strong euro so it can diversify its investments. China also needs an ally within the World Trade Organization and the G20 so it can avoid a re-evaluation of its currency. Today, Europe and China are two gravitational forces that are attracting two former US allies, Britain and Japan.

And what about the Swiss franc?M.Z.: Its value as a safe haven will keep on growing. If there is a crisis concerning the US sovereign debt, investors will turn in mass towards the franc. The Swiss franc has almost the same status as gold and it isn’t about to lose ground against the dollar.

In a monetary system undergoing change, Switzerland will have to decide which way to jump. I’m not convinced the Swiss franc can survive alone, as its position as a safe haven would be too detrimental to Switzerland’s economy.

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Japan, Australian Stock Futures Rise As Oil, Gold Prices Gain

sumber: www.publicgold.com.my April 04, 2011, 7:35 PM EDT More From Businessweek Asian Stocks Drop as Tepco Dumps Radioactive Water; Toyota Falls Hyundai Motor, Metro Pacific, YTL: Asia Ex-Japan Equity Preview Asian Stocks Rise on U.S. Jobs, Takeover Bid; Equinox Surges Most Japan Stocks Fall as Real Estate, Fishing Shares Drop Japan, Australian Stock Futures Rise After U.S. Jobs Report By Anna Kitanaka and Satoshi Kawano April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese and Australian stock futures rose as higher oil  and gold prices boosted commodity- related shares. American depositary receipts of Mitsui & Co., Japan’s second-biggest trading  company, gained 0.6 percent in New York. Those of Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s  largest commodities trader, advanced 0.9 percent. ADRs of BHP Billiton Ltd.,  the world’s No. 1 mining company, climbed 1.1 percent in New York trading.  Those of Newcrest Mining Ltd., an Australian gold producer, climbed 0.6  percent after the price of the precious metal rose. Yen-denominated futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average expiring in  June closed at 9,730 in Chicago on April 1, compared with 9,710 in Osaka,  Japan. They were bid at 9,720 in the pre- market in Osaka at 8:05 a.m. local  time. The Bank of New York Mellon Japan ADR Index fell 1.4 percent in New  York yesterday. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent  today and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index climbed 0.1 percent in Wellington. “There may be some buying in resource-related shares,” said Fumiyuki  Nakanishi, a strategist at Tokyo-based SMBC Friend Securities Co.  “However, there may not be clear moves today, and we expect the market  to fluctuate.” Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent today. The  index closed little changed yesterday, with most stocks rising as optimism  about takeovers outweighed a drop in technology shares following a report  showing lower chip sales. Oil, Gold Crude oil for May delivery advanced gained 0.5 percent to $108.47 a barrel  on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since  Sept. 22, 2008. Prices are up 28 percent from a year ago. Gold futures for June delivery rose 0.3 percent to close at $1,433 in New  York, the third gain in four sessions. The metal has jumped 27 percent in  the past year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.2 percent this year through yesterday,  compared with gains of 6 percent by the S&P 500 and 1.6 percent by the  Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Stocks in the Asian benchmark are valued at  13.2 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 13.7 times for  the S&P 500 and 11.3 times for the Stoxx 600. In Tokyo, Sumitomo Light Metal Industries Ltd., a producer of rolled  aluminum products, may be active today after the company and  Sumitomo Corp., Itochu Corp., Furukawa-Sky Aluminum Corp. and Itochu  Metals Corp. said they will jointly acquire Arco Aluminum Inc. for $680  million from BP Plc. Sumitomo Light Metal surged 10 percent to 106 yen  yesterday. In Sydney, Rio Tinto Group may be active today after Nomura International  Ltd. said the world’s second-largest mining company by sales may double  a share buyback plan to $10 billion after purchasing $800 million of its stock,  or 16 percent of the program announced in February. Rio shares gained  0.8 percent to A$85.50 yesterday. --Editors: John McCluskey, Sam Waite. source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-04/japan-australian- stock-futures-rise-as-oil-gold-prices-gain.html

Gold, Silver Coins Now Officially Legal Tender In Utah

Utah's tax code says U.S. Mint issued gold and silver coins are currency, rather than assets taxable by the state. Author: Dorothy Kosich RENO, NV -  Utah Gov. Gary Herbert last week quietly signed a law which has made Utah  the first U.S. state to recognize federally issued gold and silver coins as legal  tender. However, the governor chose not to make any public statement about the Utah Legal Tender Act. Utah's state tax code now considers U.S. Mint gold and silver coins as currency,  which means no capital gains or other state taxes will be levied when the coins  are exchanged. However, the gold and silver coins are still only worth their face  value despite record gold and silver prices. A person only identified as close to Herbert told CNN, "If somebody is stupid  enough that they want to buy a Snickers bar at 7-Eleven with a gold coin worth  thousands of dollars, they will be able to do that." Larry Hilton, an attorney and insurance salesman who authored the Utah Sound  Money Act, said eliminating taxes on the exchange of the gold and silver coins  places them in the same playing field as paper currency. However, federal taxes  still apply. The law also does not apply to foreign minted gold coins. He told the Salt Lake Tribune last December that the Utah Sound Money Act is  "not intended to be compulsory in any way. The state is offering to taxpayers,  "If you want to pay your taxes in gold and silver, we'll accept them." James West, publisher of the Midas Lettter, Wednesday called Utah Sound  Money Act "a shot at the Federal Reserve. And Utah isn't alone. A few other  states are considering similar bills." "Conservatives fret that the central bank has permanently damaged the value  of the dollar by pumping trillions into the economy, drawing down the greenback's  buying power," he observed. "And Utah - where the Tea Party has a powerful  presence - is leading the charge against Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke." The Utah Sound Money Act was also promoted by Washington-based American  Principles in Action, which is backing the Gold Standard 2012 program. Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid= 124156&sn=Detail&pid=102055